Thursday, April 22, 2010

2010 Eagles Draft Preview

***

by Tommy Lawlor

PICKS

1st Round - 24

2nd Round - 37
2nd Round - 55

3rd Round - 70
3rd Round - 87

4th Round - 105
4th Round - 121

6th Round - 200

7th Round - 243
7th Round - 244

Total of 10 picks. 

The key is the number of picks in the first 5 rounds.  Those picks you expect to make the team or seriously challenge for a roster spot.  You want 6th and 7th rounders to challenge as well, but don't have the same expectations.

Let's talk about trading up.  Why do it?  The Eagles believe in acquiring top flight players when possible.  The thing to do is identify special players and target them.  Here are the guys that I think are special:

FS Eric Berry
FS Earl Thomas
DT Ndamukong Suh
OG Mike Iupati
RB CJ Spiller

There are some fringe guys.  Rolando McClain might be special to 3-4 teams.  Brandon Graham could be special to teams who are okay with his size.   These won't be the top ten picks necessarily because the need for LTs and QBs can throw things off.  These players all did special things during the year in terms of production and have the traits that project well to the NFL.  They do have issues.  Iupati isn't a gifted pass blocker.  Spiller isn't a great inside runner.  McClain has average speed.  Graham is a bit shorter than you'd ideally like.  Etc.  Derrick Morgan has the measurables, but not the production to fit this category. His numbers were good, but not great.  I'm not sure how that will affect his value.  Is he still the #1 DE or does that lower him just a tad? 

You can bet the Eagles will work the phones and try to land a pick to take one of these players.  The question is how steep a price we're willing to pay.  If you want to eat steak you don't expect hamburger prices.  The Eagles will give value to get value, but they won't pull a Ditka and overpay. 


PROBABLE DEPTH CHART

WR  DeSean Jackson....Jason Avant
WR - Jeremy Maclin .... Hank Baskett ...... Chad Hall
TE - Brent Celek ......... Cornelius Ingram .. Martin Rucker
FB - Leonard Weaver
RB - LeSean McCoy .... Mike Bell ............ Eldra Buckley
QB - Kevin Kolb .......... Mike Vick
LT - Jason Peters .......... King Dunlap
LG - Todd Herremans ... Mike McGlynn
OC - Nick Cole ............ Jamaal Jackson .... Dallas Reynolds
RG - Stacy Andrews .... Max Jean-Gilles
RT - Winston Justice .... Fenuki Tupou

DE - Trent Cole ........... Juqua Parker
DT - Brod Bunkley ....... Trevor Laws
DT - Mike Patterson .... Antonio Dixon
DE - Darryl Tapp ......... Victor Abiamiri
WB - Ernie Sims ........... Akeem Jordan
MB - Stewart Bradley ... Joe Mays
SB - Moise Fokou ........ Alex Hall
SS - Quintin Mikell
FS - Quintin Demps ...... Marlin Jackson
CB - Ellis Hobbs ........... Geoffrey Pope
CB - Asante Samuel ..... Dimitri Patterson
NB - Joselio Hanson ..... Macho Harris

P - Sav Rocca
K - David Akers
LS - Jon Dorenbos


NEEDS

QB - There is a spot for a developmental prospect.  Kolb is the starter now, but the Eagles would be wise to bring in someone to groom as a backup.  They did that with AJ Feeley back in 2001 and it worked very well. 

RB - Shady McCoy is the primary back.  Mike Bell is his backup now, but is only hear on a 1-year deal.  The Eagles need to find a young RB to add to the mix.  Brian Westbrook was an incredibly complete player that you didn't want to take off the field.  He ruined the RB-by-committee approach of the past.  I'm guessing the Eagles would like to get back to that.  You could see them draft a RB and sign one as a UDFA.  The depth at FB is fine. 

TE - I don't think the team needs to add anyone, but the class is so deep that good players may be available late.  It would be great to see the Eagles add someone with a bit of size and/or blocking ability.  Alex Smith did a good job in 2009. 

WR - Depth.  The team is set with the top four guys.  There is a need for someone to become the primary backup on the outside for the next few years.  Hank Baskett is in place now, but is not a long term answer. Jason Avant needs to stay in the slot.  Should be a Day 3 target. 

OT - King Dunlap has yet to show he can be trusted at LT.  There is a need for someone to come in and challenge him.  If you remember last year, any time Jason Peters got hurt it caused several players to move and the overall line struggled.  Getting a reliable backup at LT would change all that. 


OG/C - Jamaal is coming off an ACL tear and won't be ready until late summer at the earliest.  We do seem to like Nick Cole.  We have plenty of interior bodies right now.  I think we'll look to add someone if a talented guy is on the board, but this class of interior linemen is weak.  Adding bodies for the sake of making a move would be dumb.  You can always go the UDFA route.  We'd all love an upgrade if the right player is available. 

DE - I've projected us going after pass rushers in a couple of mock drafts.  People questioned my thinking.  I know we have Trent Cole and that we added Darryl Tapp.  We're still one injury away from Juqua Parker going back to a starting role.  Eric DeCosta of the Ravens will tell you to always get the pass rusher when you can.  Ernie Accorsi will tell you to get the pass rusher.  I know we have other needs, but good depth at DE can be crucial.  We're okay, but could be better. 

DT - The mystery position.  We like our starters, but won't rule out adding a talented player.  This is a deep group of DTs and there are players of every size, shape, and skill set you want.  It will be interesting to see what we do here.  We could add a starting caliber player, a backup, or a role player (Nickel DT). 

LB - The additions of Ernie Sims and Max Hall may have taken us out of drafting a LB in the first 4 rounds.  We have 6 bodies that the coaches seem to like.  Omar Gaither is coming off a foot injury.  I'm not sure what his timetable is.  He could be 7.  We could take someone late.  I think this will be a prime UDFA spot. 

S - We need a talented FS.  If we miss out on someone early on then we may shift our focus to SS and find a young guy to backup up Quintin Mikell.  There are a handful of good FS targets, but there are quite a few SS prospects we could like. 

CB - We need at least one CB.  We must go get a CB early.  Ellis Hobbs is penciled in at the RCB spot, but he must be challenged by a quality rookie.  I think we need to either draft another CB or go after a top level UDFA. 

STs - I think we're fine at P and K.  Jon Dorenbos has become a good LS.  We have a great PR.  KOR is somewhat of a mystery.  Hobbs and Demps are very good, but might be starting for us on defense.  I'd like to add another KOR to the mix.  We can then let the best man get the job. 


PLAYERS WHO COULD GET DEALT

OG Max Jean-Gilles
DT Trevor Laws
QB Mike Vick


PROSPECTS --- VISITS / SPECIAL INTEREST

* Guys who came to Philly

QB Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

RB Toby Gerhart, Stanford
RB Jonathan Dwyer, Ga Tech
RB James Starks, Buffalo
RB Deji Karim, Southern Illinois
RB Charles Scott, LSU

WR Danario Alexander, Missouri

TE Tony Moeaki, Iowa

OG John Jerry, Ole Miss
OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale

DE Jerry Hughes, TCU
DE Chris McCoy, MTSU
DE/LB Dexter Davis, Arizona State
DE Jeff Fitzgerald, Kansas State
DE Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, Washington
DE Jamie Kirlew, Indiana
DE Eric Moncur, Miami

DT Brian Price, UCLA

LB Arthur Moats, James Madison
LB Jamar Chaney, Mississippi State
LB AJ Edds, Iowa

S Eric Berry, Tennessee

CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
CB Joshua Moore, Kansas State
CB Walter Thurmond, Oregon
CB David Pender, Purdue
CB Javier Arenas, Alabama


PLAYERS WHO GOT VISITS FROM COACHES

QB John Skelton, Fordham
QB Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State
RB Charles Scott, LSU
RB Shawnbrey McNeal, SMU
OC Ted Larsen, N.C. State
OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale
OT Selvish Capers, West Virginia

DE/OLB Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech
DT Linval Joseph, East Carolina
DT Jay Ross, East Carolina
CB Devin McCourty, Rutgers
RS Robert McClain, Connecticut


PLAYERS WHO WE SHOWED SPECIAL INTEREST IN


QB Tim Hiller, Western Michigan
WR Marcus Easley, Connecticut
OC Joe Hawley, UNLV
OT Rodger Saffold, Indiana
OT Ed Wang, Virginia Tech
OT Chris Campbell, Eastern Illinois
OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
OT Jeraill McCuller, N.C. State

DE Ricky Sapp, Clemson (said we're showing the most interest of any team)
DE Sergio Kindle, Texas
DT Sean Lissemore, William & Mary
DT Earl Mitchell, Arizona

S Mike Newton, Buffalo
S Anthony Levine, Tennessee State


EAGLES VALUE BOARD

Because the Eagles are so specific I'm trying to list players that I think have a likelihood to be on the Eagles draft list.  I will be omitting good players. 

1st Round

RB: CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews

TE: Jermaine Gresham

WR: Demaryius Thomas

OT: Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Anthony Davis


DE:  Derrick Morgan, Brandon Graham, Jerry Hughes

DT:  Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Dan Williams, Jared Odrick

LB:   Daryl Washington, Sean Weatherspoon

ILB:   Rolando McClain

S:  Eric Berry, Earl Thomas

CB:  Joe Haden, Kyle Wilson, Kareem Jackson


2nd Round


RB:  Jahvid Best, Toby Gerhart, Montario Hardesty, Dexter McCluster

TE:  Rob Gronkowski

WR:  Arrelious Benn, Golden Tate

OT:  Rodger Saffold, Charles Brown, Vlad Ducasse, Bruce Campbell, Jared Veldheer

OG:  John Jerry, Jon Asamoah


DE:  Everson Griffen, Corey Wootton, Ricky Sapp

DT:  Brian Price, Lamarr Houston

LB:  Sean Lee, Koa Misi

S:  Nate Allen, Morgan Burnett

CB:  Devin McCourty, Brandon Ghee


3rd Round

RB:  Ben Tate, Jonathan Dwyer

TE:  Jimmy Graham, Tony Moeaki

WR:  Carlton Mitchell, Taylor Price, Riley Cooper, Jacoby Ford

OT:  Zane Beadles, Selvish Capers, Marshall Newhouse


DE:  Jason Worilds, Jermaine Cunningham

DT:  Al Woods, Torrell Troup, Linval Joseph

LB:  Navorro Bowman

ILB:  Donald Butler

S:  Chad Jones, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Major Wright, Reshad Jones

CB:  Amari Spievey, Chris Cook


4th Round

RB:  Charles Scott, James Starks, Deji Karim

WR:  Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Roberts

OT:  Chris Scott, Ramon Harewood

OC:  Matt Tennant, Reggie Stephens


DE:  Daniel Te'o Nesheim, Jammie Kirlew

DT:  Arthur Jones, Jeff Owens, Earl Mitchell

LB:  AJ Edds, Perry Riley, Travis Goethel, Jason Beauchamp

ILB:   Jamar Chaney, Lee Campbell

CB:  Myron Lewis, Javier Arenas, Walter McFadden

___________________

All-Tommy Team (my favorite non-1st rounders)

WR Andre Roberts - The Citadel
WR Taylor Price - Ohio
TE Dennis Pitta - BYU
FB Matt Clapp - Oklahoma
RB Ben Tate - Auburn
QB Armanti Edwards - Appalachian State
LT Chris Scott - Tennessee
LG Shelley Smith - Colorado State
OC Matt Tennant - Boston College
RG Jon Asamoah - Illinois
RT Kyle Calloway - Iowa

DE Daniel Te'o-Nesheim - Washington
DT Lamarr Houston - Texas
DT Al Woods - LSU
DE Jammie Kirlew - Indiana
WB Sean Lee - Penn State
MB Lee Campbell - Minnesota
SB AJ Edds - Iowa
SS TJ Ward - Oregon
FS Kurt Coleman - Ohio State
CB Amari Spievey - Iowa
CB Walt McFadden - Auburn


Out of this list I want the Eagles to get 4 players...guys I covet (more or less)

RB Ben Tate
RB Charles Scott
WR Andre Roberts
TE Tony Moeaki
OT Jared Veldheer
OL Chris Scott


DE Jerry Hughes
DE Brandon Graham
DE Daniel Te'o Nesheim
DT Torrell Troup
DT Al Woods
LB Sean Lee
ILB Lee Campbell
FS Eric Berry
FS Earl Thomas
SS Kurt Coleman
CB Kyle Wilson
CB Kareem Jackson
CB Devin McCourty
_______________________________

I'm sure I've left something off so ask away.  Long day and my head is really spinning.  And we haven't even really started.
_

21 comments:

Michael said...

Nitpicking here, but it's a total of 10 picks (11 - 1 5th rounder to Denver = 10).

Tommy Lawlor said...

Thanks. I started writing that 7-10 days ago when we still had 11 picks.

Fixed it.

bthackra said...

Smells like a carpet bombing on the defensive line and secondary this weekend. I like it.

How big a difference is there between Berry and Thomas, in your view? Any work ethic issues with Thomas?

Baloophi said...

Tommy

Nice work on the AT&T - the All-Tommy Team.

I especially like your coveted players list.

RE: PR

I'd like to pick-up a guy who can handle the PR duties down the road... I get nervous with Jackson back there even though he is a homerun threat. If we lose him to injury I worry about what that does to the offense.

eagles nut said...

Please assure me Tommy that the Eagles won't trade up for Jason Pierre-Paul as has been rumored. I don't even like him at 24. I'd rather have Jerry Hughes.

Tommy Lawlor said...

You have my word. JPP will NOT be an Eagle.

Ben said...

guys i'm pretty sure JPP is off our board.

he's not our type of guy and if we've seen sackSEER, i'm sure nfl scouts have too. While it will never be a perfect science, they clearly are on to something. I wonder if sackSEER continues to come off correctly, if NFL teams will let good college DE's who would normally be good prospects start falling a lot due to a bad 3cone and/or vert. It would make the combine even more important to those guys.

Ben said...

also--

i've thought about this, but I wonder if we could be targeting Earl Thomas as a corner for us

Baloophi said...

@ Ben

RE: SackSEER

I wonder how prospects would respond if vert and 3 cone become the most important factor. Not that these guys aren't training like crazy for all the Combine drills but if I'm a top collegiate DE (and I'm not saying I'm not), then I think I'd start focusing on the 3 cone and the vert perhaps at the expense of bench press, etc.

Obviously they're supposed to be "natural" disciplines (you've either got vert or you don't) but if all you do is run around cones for a couple months I bet you could improve your time...

Ben said...

baloophi:

definitely... and i think there is some credence to what they're doing. later rounds, not so much, and game tape still has to mean something, but the fact that their calculated busts have ALL busted, definitely shows something. They don't calculate how good someone may be and there are some projected good players who can bust, but the breakdown is impressive and the fact that all of their predicted busts HAVE busted, is very interesting

Baloophi said...

@ Ben

Agree on the efficacy of SackSEER as a weed-out device... or at least the notion of it. I think when you start to think of it as a crystal ball (as the "SEER" in the title might suggest) you'll get into trouble... especially when you blow a high pick on a mid-level talent. Like if Bryan Smith was selected because his SackSEER rating of 52.1 (or whatever) made him a "can't miss" guy.

Brian said...

Two things Tommy:

I don't see CB Patrick Robinson anywhere. Reason?

To what extent do you think all these late rumors that the Eagles want to move up is a smokescreen? I tend to be especially distrustful of stuff that comes out this late, especially when its from some national guy stationed in Philly. (e.g. here: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/22/umenyiora-to-philly-rumors-debunked/ or here: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/22/eagles-looking-to-move-way-up/ )

Cliff said...

I'd love Armanti Edwards. Is it fair to compare him to Randle El or is that more of a comparison-by-convenience?

Tommy Lawlor said...

RE: Patrick Robinson

I have doubts if he's an Eagles kind of player. Had a down Senior year. Hasn't been productive since 2007. Didn't have a strong Combine. He makes me nervous.


RE: Armanti

Randle-El is a good comparison. Obviously Antwaan was a higher level of player and athlete. He was great in the Big Ten and also a star baseball prospect.

Cliff said...

I hate watching these first few is because we all knew who these selections would be, but they spend their whole 10 minutes. Now that Washington's on the clock, things get interesting.

Homer said...

Yep, here we go.

Ben said...

dreams over.

Pitmanite said...

i know the first 3 picks were obvious, but are they going to keep showing every single guy on his cell phone before the pick comes up?

it takes all the suspense out of it. i mean we just heard berry say he's going to be a chief a full minute before goodell announced the selection!!

Cliff said...

The pick is in!

Cliff said...

What the hell was that?

Ben said...

i'm sorry, but our need was obvious. i'm furious with this