Wednesday, September 10, 2008

How good can the defense be?

I don't like to mix seasons together often when looking at numbers, but occasionally it makes sense when there is a lot of continuity on the team or a particular unit. As I reflected on the 38-3 win I was trying to remember if we had any game where we shut someone down like that last year.

We held Miami to 7 points ( on a punt return TD). We held Dallas to only 6. Buffalo only scored 9 points in the season finale. The Rams 3 points would have bettered all those scores. I noticed something as I looked at the stats. Those low games all came at the end of the year. 3 of the final 7 games we held the opponent without an offensive TD. Mix in the Rams game and we have 4 of the last 8 games where the opposing offense hasn't gotten into the endzone. That is pretty darn impressive.

With that in mind...how good can the D be this year? Can they be dominant? I do think the defense can be a special unit. We have pass rushers up front. Patterson and Bunkley are underrated against the run. We have big linebackers and all of them run fairly well. We have 3 excellent corners. We had 3 solid Safeties. The defense has good depth. From a personnel standpoint there is no reason we can't finish high in fewest points and yards allowed as well as most sacks and most takeaways. The pieces are in place.

Now the onus is on Jim Johnson to find a way to use all the guys...to maximize our weapons. How often do you play 3 CB's? How often do you play 3 LB's? Jim has the luxury of deciding what he wants to do. In 2006 he had to gameplan for how to replace Lito for 3 1/2 games. Now JJ needs to see how much he uses him. Big difference. Last season JJ had to be careful about how he used Chris Gocong. Now he's trying to get him on the field as much as possible and to be creative with him. Big difference.

Jim has a lot of firepower to work with. He's got the ability to blitz, cover, stack the box, or sit back and play it safe. He can really do whatever he wants with this defense.

Let's set some goals:

* Top 5 in fewest yards allowed
* Give up 260 points or fewer, about 16 a game
* Get 45 sacks
* 32 Takeaways

I don't think the yards allowed goal should be a problem. We were pretty high up in that category last year and I think we're improved. If we stay healthy, we should be able to control most offenses.

Jim Johnson has always had a goal of allowing 17 points or less. I went with 16 because...I'm greedy. Scoring defense does get tricky because defensive and Special Teams TD's factor in. Donovan has never been an INT machine and our ST's units look vastly improved. I'm sticking with under 260.

I'd really love to get 50 sacks, but that can be tough. As much as Jim Johnson has a reputation as a crazy blitzer, he really can be conservative at times. Once the Eagles get a decent lead, he plays the percentages for the most part.

Coming up with a turnover total was tough. I looked at some old numbers. I'd love to see us get 40 or more, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. Again, Jim plays it safe at times. That will help you in 3rd down defense, but cost you in sacks and turnovers. I think we once had 56 takeaways under Buddy. That is off the charts. NFL offenses are much safer and more efficient these days. You don't see totals like that.

I'm excited to see what this defense can do and how good it can be. Dallas will be a great challenge with their system and weapons. Shutting down Bulger, Jackson, and Holt was a good start. Romo-Simpson, Owens, Witten, Barber, and Felix the rookie will be a much better measuring stick.
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New PE.com article is up...taking a look at some role players and thoughts from Around the League:

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=16113

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