Wednesday, February 10, 2010

QB Trade Value

***

I had a nice long write-up going along, but lost power momentarily and it all got wiped out.  I'll take that as a sign from the Football Gods that I should keep things short and simple. 

Donovan McNabb --- He is still a good starting QB.  Think about this.  The worst record he had as a starter in this decade...4-5.  That came in 2005 when TO went nuclear on us and we had a ton of injuries.  Every other year was .500 or better.  Andy Reid was a big part of that.  Jim Johnson and the defense were a big part of that.  Donovan gets a lot of credit as well.  He knows how to win. 

McNabb has issues to be sure, but what team wouldn't be interested in a QB that wins games and stays out of trouble?  Teams like STL and BUF need to show their fans some sign of hope.  McNabb would be perfect.  He's camera friendly with that smile of his.  Players love him.  He's a family guy and handles the spotlight well. 

Other teams may be interested because Donovan could push them over the top and into the playoffs.  SF would have to strongly consider him.  Cleveland has some talent, but desperately needs a QB.  I'm not going to cover every team that could fit.  The point is that there are plenty of teams who will have interest and for a variety of reasons. 

I don't think the Eagles can get a Top 15 pick for him.  Teams hate to give up those picks, even for a QB.  I'm not sure a team in the bottom of the 1st will be QB shopping.  Maybe ARZ.  Kurt Warner didn't exactly give a great endorsement to Matt Leinart in a recent radio interview.  The Cards might be willing to part with pick #26 to get Donovan if they have doubts about Matt. 

Donovan is too valuable to just get us a 2nd round pick.  I think a likely scenario could be a 2nd this year and then a conditional pick in 2011.  If he makes the Pro Bowl and leads the team to the playoffs we get a good pick next year.  Probably a 2nd.  Maybe we could get a 1st, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. 

There have been some QB trades of interest in the last 10-15 years, but normally it is a young guy stuck behind a franchise player.  Matt Hasselbeck was behind Brett Favre.  Matt Schaub was behind Mike Vick.  AJ Feeley was behind McNabb.  Proven veteran starters are a different story.  Jay Cutler was traded for a 1st round pick last year.  Chicago didn't hesitate because Jay has 5-10 good years (physically) ahead of him.  McNabb doesn't have that much time left.  The only similar trade situation I can recall is Drew Bledsoe.  Buffalo gave up a 1st round pick for him back in 2002.  Here's a good article on that situation.  If Brett Favre retires that could create a perfect scenario where Childress would give up his 1st rounder for McNabb.  Cross your fingers on the Favre retirement. 

One thing that helps us is that this is a poor group of college QBs.  There is no guy that clearly says "I'm an elite prospect."  That fact could force the hand of some desperate team or multiple teams.  If any kind of bidding war erupted we could be in an enviable situation.  That is when a mid 1st could become available.  Don't count on this scenario.  It is nice to dream, though. 


Mike Vick --- I am much less certain about Vick.  I can't reasonably see how a team could spend a Top 75 pick for him.  That takes you into the early part of the 3rd round.  Mike last started a game in December of 2006.  He was 2-7 in the last 9 starts of that year.  The number of games Vick threw for 250 or more yards in '06...1.  Heck, he's only got 6 career games where he threw for 250 or more.  Kolb has 2 such games in 2 starts.  Kolb and Mike have the same number of 300-yard passing games. 

I understand that Mike was a dynamic weapon as a runner and that's why he doesn't have many great passing games.  That is part of my point, though.  He's no longer a dynamic runner.  He never showed anything close to the speed from the old days.  If a team sees Vick as a starter in 2010 he'll need to be able to make it as a passer as much or more than as a runner.  Can he make that transition with so little QB time in the last 3 years?  I don't know. 

There is simply no way I believe any team covets Vick as their starter in 2010.  He was 6 of 13 this year.  He completed one great pass in the playoff game, but you don't plan your offense around one pass that a guy made.  That would be nuts.  I do think teams have interest in bringing Mike to camp to challenge for the starting job.  Because of this I think the best scenario is getting a conditional pick for him.  That would obviously come in the 2011 Draft. 

I hope I'm wrong and that some team offers us a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  That would make me ecstatic.  I just don't see that realistically happening.  I'd be happy with a 4th rounder.  This is where I could see some team rolling the dice.  Maybe.  Whoever makes the deal will still have to deal with the controversy of adding Vick.  He'll also be paying $5.5M for a guy that might not be a good starter anymore. 

The other factor that hurts us is that I think plenty of teams will say no to a trade and wait to see if we release him.  I'm sure several teams would have interest if they didn't have to give up a pick or pay him $5.5M next year.  Vick could blow us all away and turn out to be a good QB.  He'd be a great acquisition as a low risk-high reward move. 


Kevin Kolb --- I think the Eagles would be insane to deal him, but you never know what will happen.  I think STL and CLE would covet him.  I think the Rams would gladly hand pick 33 and a future pick to us for Kevin.  I think the Browns would do a similar offer.  BUF and DEN could be real interested.  We'd get a good deal for him.  The problem is that we'd have to turn around and draft a QB with one of our early picks to have someone ready for 2013 or 14.  You're not really gaining anything. 


ANSWERS

RE:  Sean Weatherspoon in the 1st?

I think Sean would fit pretty well at WLB for us.  I need to check some tape to see how well he does at taking on blockers.  He's got the size and build that we like.  He played between the tackles a lot at Mizzou.  We love to take MLBs and move them to WLB.  Sean is a good pass defender.  He'd be a good fit in that regard.  I don't think it is very likely that we go for a LB in the 1st, but the Eagles will make that move one of these days. 


RE:  Mike Lombardi's article Kolb-for-Shaun Rogers

Here is the link.  No way to that deal. 

I am interested in Rogers.  He is inconsistent, but absolutely dominates at times.  I would not trade a QB that I believe in for him.  Now, McNabb for Rogers?  That is something I'm more open to.  I've talked to some friends about Rogers.  He fascinates me.  Shaun has a reputation as a problem child.  In his defense, the man has been stuck in Detroit and Cleveland.  Let's put him in a good locker room...on a winning team.  Let's give him a good coach and see how he reacts.  Shaun could put us over the top.  Or he could be a disaster.  I'd have a hard time not at least looking into a deal for him if the price was right. 
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20 comments:

Stephen said...

The one thing that I always feel you need to factor in about Vick's value is not his objectively analyzed ability as a QB at this stage in his career, but people always talk about him in different terms. He's "exciting", a "unique athlete", and he "fills the stadium, he's worth the price of admission".

Those have always been the terms that people use to talk about Vick. My feeling is that some franchise is going to see Vick as much as a marketing opportunity as a legitimate quarterback to lead the team. Think about a franchise like Buffalo that struggles to be profitable, or Jacksonville who has publicly postured as wanting Tebow as much to fill the seats as to win football games.

Thats why I feel like some team will pony up something valuable for Vick, but maybe I'm wrong.

Tommy Lawlor said...

I hope you are right, Stephen. The problem with that thinking, though, is that Vick didn't really show those exciting qualities this year. We have to hope that teams buy into the rhetoric that he will be much better in 2010.

There is one point that my friend Ryan made. Vick could be used in a trade-up scenario. We could switch 2nd round picks with BUF and give them Vick as compensation. That way they wouldn't lose a pick. They would drop 10-15 spots, but would add a potential starting QB. That might be good value for both sides. I used BUF as an example, but it could be any number of teams.

Chris said...

Tommy,

Lately a lot of teams have been complaining about high picks in the 1st round as they make a ton and haven't proven anything. Do you think one of the teams looking for a QB would swap 1st rounders as well as giving us another few later picks for McNabb? Would you do that if you were the Eagles?

Myron said...

Interesting that you bring up the Bledsoe trade from 2002, Tommy, because for a while now I've been thinking that McNabb's career trajectory will probably be most similar to Drew Bledsoe's. I see alot of similarities in their respective careers and skillsets/intangibles. If that *is* the case, a similar trade would be an amazing deal for the Eagles, especially if Kolb is to McNabb what Brady was to Bledsoe.

If, instead, McNabb turns out to be more like Elway (which I doubt), and Kolb turns out to be Tommy Maddox... well then, we'd obviously be better off trading Kolb now.

I hope Andy can correctly determine if McNabb is Elway or if he's Bledsoe.

Prem Prakash said...

I also hope you are right about Vick, Stephen. He's the same type of athlete as Iverson. You'd figure someone is going to want him. I had originally thought the pick-up of Vick was a great move. I figured the Eagles would put him on the field a bunch, showcase his skills, then trade him this year for a 2nd round pick. Ain't going to happen.

McNabb is the guy with the value. If the team is determined to go with Kolb, they should be able to get a trade package that works. One problem with dealing McNabb is that the team may well be without a #2 qb. Vick has played his cards straight since getting out of prison. He has said and done all the right things, now he wants field time. If he is the guy holding the clipboard the Eagles will have a horribly expensive and unhappy backup.

If they trade Kevin, drafting him in the first place was a waste, they can't get much for him anyway, and they'd need to go back to the drawing board to find a young qb to groom for the future.

Here's what I think will happen. The Eagles will listen to the McNabb offers. If there is something stunning they will take it. They then start Kolb and find a #2 through free agency. Vick goes for whayever they can get. If the McNabb offers aren't a knockout, Donovan plays one more year, with the understanding that it takes a Lombardi to keep him beyond that. Kevin is again the #2, and Vick, again, goes to the highest bidder.

Stephen said...

I'd like to get more than that for Vick honestly, to me it seems like teams that are desperate will be willing to pay a little bit extra, and Vick is still a huge media pull. I feel like a team might be willing to just roll the dice with Vick, hoping his athleticism can get back to where it was.

My criticism of us picking him up in the first place was that he wasn't likely to be as athletic as he was before the jail time (which he wasn't) and that by the time he gets a year or two of football back under his belt he's going to be on the wrong side of 30. How quickly past 30 are his athletic skills going to decline? He can't be the "Michael Vick" experience forever, he's going to have to learn to throw.

Now I absolutely hope that some team will fall in love with the idea of him returning to tip top form, and I feel like it would take a desperate franchise to do that (or a desperate to sell tickets franchise) but I absolutely agree with you that from a purely football standpoint a top 75 pick would be a bit of a reach.

Tommy Lawlor said...

@ Prem...

The one problem with your theory about giving Donovan one more year is what to do next Feb/March. Do we Franchise him and then try to deal him? Do we let him walk and take the Comp pick? The options aren't great.

Using the tag in that situation can be risky.

rick said...

"There is one point that my friend Ryan made. Vick could be used in a trade-up scenario. We could switch 2nd round picks with BUF and give them Vick as compensation."

Or we could trade Vick and one of our 3rd's for a high 2nd.....?

Tommy Lawlor said...

That could also be possible.

I'm going to be disappointed if we don't end up with 5 1st round picks.

izzylangfan said...

Tommy,

Two of the best sites for info on the NFL draft are scoutsnotebook.com and Scout.com. So I compared the two sites rankings on defensive ends. There was a lot of agreement but the main difference is that your rankings for DE include guys that scout.com includes as outside linebackers.

It seems to me that these tweener types might be better for a 3-4 than the Eagles 4-3. In addition the Eagles like their LDE (which is really the need in the Eagles case) to have good size - perhaps even greater than average for a DE.

The Eagles have tried a couple of tweener types recently - Smith who we could only put on the practice squad and then was picked up by another team, and Gocong who we have used at SAM with only mixed results. The funny thing about Gocong is that is is big and strong enough to stop the run to the strong side but is lacking in the other areas that you expect a linebacker to excel. What about switching him to DE. Might he not end up better than Clemmons for example.

What is your opinion on the ability of the Eagles style D to use these tweeners, particularly in light of the current need at LDE?

Cliff said...

With ESPN and the Philly media talking about McNabb's trade as if it were certain, this summer will be a MESS if he isn't traded. The players should be used to this circus by now, but I can see it being very distracting.

Edward said...

Interestingly NFLN is talking about it as if McNabb is certain to stay and Kolb is almost certain to go. Anything could happen!

Prem Prakash said...

Yea, Tommy, you're right about the hole in my qb theory. Good point. How's this for another rambling qb idea: The Eagles keep Mcnabb and Kolb for next year. McNabb has such a lights out year, maybe even a SB win, that everyone agress he should be re-signed. But Donovan decides all the drama in Philly isn't worth it, so he walks away into free agency. We always assume that McNabb is a lifer in Philly, but maybe it just ain't so.

On a side note, my wife is amazed that I still spend so much time on this forum, and checking out other Eagles news. As she put it, "Isn't the season over?" How to explain our Green blood?

Myron said...

Prem: Doesn't she know that the season isn't officially over until the final round of the draft is in the books?

Also, I don't think any other Eagles offseason in the past has been so riveting as this one. Will they trade McNabb or Kolb? Will Vick be back? What kind of defensive end are they going to draft? Are they going to make a play for Peppers? Is DeSean Jackson getting a new contract? Are they even going to have football after next season?

Prem Prakash said...

Myron, I think she fails to understand the nature of an Eagles addiction, and that Tommy's blog is my 12-step group.

Also, when the draft ends one season, doesn't that mean the new season begins?!

Stephen said...

I agree Tommy, if we don't get all 5 first rounders we our plan to trade up and take Eric Berry #1 overall might never materialize, and we can't let that happen.

Mr_Boomy said...

Is Aaron Schobel a free agent?
I'd love to have him on our team.

Cliff said...

I think the Bills re-signed Schobel to a long contract.

izzylangfan said...

This draft is said to be deep at the DE position and a bit thin in defensive backs. But when I look at the various mock drafts it looks like all of the top (those receiving a 5-star rating on scout.com) DE's will be gone by pick 40 while there is a good chance that some of the top CBs and Safeties will be still around when the Eagles pick in round two. So if the Eagles hope to come away with a DE and a DB it might be best to pick the DE in round one and the DB in round two.

Mr_Boomy said...

It's just my dream.
Aaron Schobel signed in 2007 through 2013.
The Bills are changing to 3-4.
Maybe having Jauron would help a bit. :P

Is there year a good class for DE and DB?